Open-pit coal industry (002128) company announcement comment: the increase in the increase in the results of coal, electricity and aluminum integration can be expected

Open-pit coal industry (002128) company announcement comment: the increase in the increase in the results of coal, electricity and aluminum integration can be expected
Investment Highlights: Increasing the coal content for 19 years will net increase performance.2.5 billion.The company’s announcement predicts that the purity of coal in 19 years will be improved compared to 18 years, which will increase net profit attributable to mothers 武汉夜网论坛 by 5 in 2019.About 3 billion, after considering the company’s other reclamation, greening, environmental protection and other cost restructuring, it is expected to increase the company’s net profit attributable to mothers in 20192.About 2.5 billion.According to the performance report, the company’s net profit attributable to its mother in 2018 was 20.2.7 billion. It is reasonable to oppose the market price increase, and the fluctuation of market coal price has little disturbance to performance.The company is located in Mengdong and sits on the Huolinhe and Zaha’er large coal fields. The total production capacity is 4600 tons / year. The main coal type is lignite, which sells in Mengdong and Northeast China.As supply-side reforms have brought about an increase in the supply-demand gap in the three northeastern provinces, the market price of thermal coal in the Ramodong area has increased, but the company’s carbides were too low due to adjustments based on the Bohai Rim and Jinzhou Port price indexes.In 2017, the company’s average sales price was limited to 133.5 yuan / ton, and the corresponding lignite pit price in Huolinguole area is 305.9 yuan / ton, the discount rate is nearly 60%, so the company’s upward trend in sales prices in 2019 is in line with market conditions.The purity of input and output tons of coal has only been raised by about 11.5 yuan / ton (5.3 ppm / 4600 budget), there is still a gap with the market price after the increase, so the fluctuation of market coal prices has a small impact on the company’s performance. New energy generating units have been put into production one after another, and power project reserves are abundant.The company currently operates 2 * 600MW thermal power units as the main peak shaving units in Northeast China, benefiting from pit-head turbine generators, with stable profits.In terms of new installed capacity, in December 2018, the total 300MW capacity of Dalat Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects No.1 and No.4 was officially put into production;Some wind turbines of the 5MW wind power project have been connected to the grid.At present, the company’s projects under construction include the first-phase 225MW wind power project in Abaga, 100MW wind power project in Youjia, Jiayou, Shanxi, and abundant wind power, photovoltaic projects, and power project reserves in Sunite Right Banner. It is planned to issue additional assets to acquire electrolytic aluminum assets, and coal, electricity and aluminum integration can be expected.The company plans to issue shares to Mengdong Energy, a major shareholder, and pay cash to purchase 51% of its shares in Huohu Hongjun. At the same time, it plans to raise no more than 13 matching funds from non-public offering of shares to no more than 10 specific objects.300 million.At present, Huomei Hongjun has a total of 121 electrolytic aluminum production capacity (86 leads in production, 35 connectors under construction), and deducts non-attribution net profit in 20173.8.6 billion yuan, the net profit per ton of aluminum is about 470 yuan / ton, which has great competitive advantages.We believe that the annual production capacity under construction and the recovery of aluminum prices in 2019 will bring the company’s profit growth. Profit forecast and estimation.According to the performance report, the company’s EPS in 2018 was 1.24 yuan. As the company raised its coal recovery and thickening performance in 2019, we raised the company’s EPS in 19/20 to 1.39/1.36 yuan (not considering asset injection), the closing price on March 12, 2019 was 8.97 yuan, corresponding to only about 6x PE in 2019, with reference to comparable companies for the coal portion of 2019 8?9xPE, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 11.12?12.51 yuan, maintaining the “primary market” rating. If the asset injection is completed, according to the performance commitment, the net profit of Huomei Hongjun’s return to mother in 18-20 will not be less than 13.1 ppm is equivalent to the company’s expected annual net profit contribution.2 trillion, refer to comparable companies to give electrolytic aluminum part 15?20xPE, corresponding to a market value of 33?45 trillion.Plus coal part 8?9xPE corresponds to a market cap of 182?20.5 billion US dollars, the company’s total market value reasonable range is 215?25 billion yuan, assuming price increases and replacements for major shareholders and the market.05 yuan, the share capital is expected to be 19 after the additional issue.3.5 billion shares (original share capital 16.34+ major shareholders will increase 1.54+ supporting fundraising 1.47), corresponding to a reasonable value interval of 11.11?12.92 yuan. risk warning.Environmental productivity is not easy to grasp; downstream demand has greatly exceeded expectations.