AVIC Hi-Tech (600862) Coverage Report for the First Time: Replacement of Prepreg Leads in Real Estate Business Optimistic about 300% of Composite Materials to Improve Space

AVIC Hi-Tech (600862) Coverage Report for the First Time: Replacement of Prepreg Leads in Real Estate Business Optimistic about 300% of Composite Materials to Improve Space

The company is a leading company in the field of composite prepregs in China. The profitability of composites has maintained a medium and high-speed growth.

The company’s carbon fiber composite materials business continued to improve, and its gross profit continued to grow by about 25% in 2017 and 2018.

Benefiting from rising industry demand, the 2019 Interim Report shows that the composites industry31.

08 service realized 53.

With a growth rate of 7%, we expect the high prosperity of the composite materials industry is expected to continue in 2020.

The divestiture of real estate business, focusing on the main line of aviation business, increased net profit by about 2.

The 2.9 billion company announced on December 25 that it intends to control Nantong’s shareholders (shareholding ratio 6).

024%) transferred 100% equity of Jiangsu Zhihao, a subsidiary, for a consideration of 10.

0.5 billion.

The company’s real estate business launch this time has initially fulfilled its commitment during the 2015 reorganization and will achieve an orderly exit from the real estate business.

We believe that through this divestiture, the company’s net profit will increase.

2.9 billion yuan.

我国处在二代机\三代机向四代机爬升阶段,复材占比具备300%提升空间 目前我国军机二代机三代机占比超过50%,三代机以歼-10 为例碳纤维用量仅It is 6%, and the fourth-generation J20 is 27%.

Therefore, in the process of leaping from the second and third generation to the fourth generation, the proportion of composite materials exceeds 300% every year.

Taking into account the continuous maturity of average aviation equipment manufacturing, production will continue to rise steadily. Combined with the demand for domestic civil aviation aircraft, it is expected that the industry’s demand space will be driven by the increase in the proportion of single aircraft and the total aircraft output.

公司为C919\929 供应商,未来民机碳纤维用量存在巨大提升空间公司生产的C919 用国产预浸料完成首批交付;同时中国商飞向公司正式发放了CR929 项目前机身工作包RFP。The amount of C919 carbon fiber is about 11.

5%, and 50% of the carbon fiber consumption of international civil aircraft is still a gap.

In the future, there will be plenty 杭州桑拿 of room for improvement in the use of carbon fiber in civil aircraft.

In addition, the average annual purchase of Chinese civil aircraft exceeds US $ 400 billion. According to COMAC data, it is calculated to last until 2037. Considering the 1% annual increase in civil aircraft prices, the number of total mainline aircraft purchases in 2019-2037 will exceed 9,000, with a total value of 11.48 trillion.US dollars, equivalent to about 7 yuan.

7 trillion yuan, domestic demand for large aircraft materials to reach tens of billions of dollars of market space.

Profit forecast and investment advice: We expect the company’s revenue to be 22 in 2019-2021.

38/28.

62/37.

97 trillion, with growth rates of -15.

63% / 27.

86% / 32.

66%, net profit attributable to mother is 5.

59/3.

90/5.

35 trillion, the growth rate was 83北京夜生活网.

82% /-30.

23% / 37.

28%, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 28 on December 27.

13/38.

21/26.

09x.

As a leading company in the domestic carbon fiber industry, the company has an average P / E64 relative to comparable companies.93x, value is underestimated, the first coverage with a buy rating, target price of 18.

83 yuan.

Risk Warning: 1.

Profit is less than expected; 2.

Demand for carbon fiber materials is less than expected; 3.

Technology R & D risks.