Yili shares (600887) in-depth report: excellent management helps long-distance running win the net interest rate and gradually return to the rising channel

Yili shares (600887) in-depth report: excellent management helps long-distance running win the net interest rate and gradually return to the rising channel

Abstract: The ceiling of room temperature milk development is still high and there is still potential for improvement in concentration, and the external environment for the growth of the leader is still good.

Yili has completed the process from “chasing” to “leading” in the past 10 years. The room scale of milk at room temperature is clearly leading the competition, which means that it has a forward-looking vision and an efficient marketing system to help Yili win in long-distance running.

Looking forward, room temperature milk continues to hold the banner of growth, low-temperature milk + beverage go hand in hand, double-value revenue growth is still expected, and short-term price wars may be further dispersed, Yili ‘s performance has been released, and the room temperature milk distribution has been continuously changed for a long time.Yili’s net interest rate will enter a slowly increasing channel in 2020 or the year of layout optimization verification.

Liquid milk has a 10-year development period, and room temperature may still be the mainstream in the future. The concentration has gradually continued to increase: because the product is widely used in offline city gifts, liquid milk has both essential and optional attributes.

Affected by the downturn in the macro economy, the decline of the wealth effect, and the easing of the rate of gift substitution, the industry’s growth rate dropped in 19 years, but considering that liquid milk still has more than 50% volume growth space, we believe that liquid milk will continue to grow in the single digits in the next 10 yearstrend.

The nutritional value of low temperature milk reaches room temperature milk, the conversion per capita income increases and the cold chain is becoming more and more perfect. The share of low temperature milk may gradually increase, but referring to the experience of European countries, the long distance between production and sales places may still make room temperature milk the mainstream of the domestic market.

At present, the texture of liquid milk has basically increased, and high-end + scale effects have promoted the concentration of room temperature distribution to the leader. At present, the CR2 of room temperature milk has reached 65%, and may continue to increase to 80% in the future. Regional dairy companies and leaders share the low temperature market.However, the low-temperature yogurt shuffle or promote the concentration of low-temperature milk slowly increased.

Excellent management ability blooms value, Yili wins in long-distance running: In the past 10 years, Yili relied on endogenous growth to complete the process from “catching up” to “leading”, with a 10-year compound growth rate of 13.

9%. Competitive products are endogenous + extended, benefiting in part from corporate mergers and acquisitions and direct business operations, with a 10-year compound growth rate of 10.

2%.

From the perspective of categories, Yili room temperature milk, milk powder, and cold drinks have become the leading advantage over competing products. Among them, room temperature milk is the absolute main category of both parties. Yili’s leading competitors (excluding Junlebao) are close to 15 billion. The main advantage is high-end large orders.The growth rate of product growth continues to widen the gap, while other room temperature milk has a more sustainable and more sound offline channel network, which has also maintained a slightly faster growth than competing products.

Lu Yao knows horsepower. We believe that the core of Yili’s victory in long-distance running is its excellent management ability. It relies on the courage to invest resources in a forward-looking layout and seize new opportunities one after another, and comprehensively and effectively encourages the construction of an efficient marketing system to further accelerateThe speed of strategic landing, thereby creating a systematic and fast-moving comprehensive competitive advantage over its peers.

The growth momentum is still strong, and the net margin may enter the channel of improvement: Looking forward, the continued growth of basic products + niche single products or hedging the impact of the growth of super large single products, room temperature milk can continue to grow by more than 10%.The yogurt extrusion at room temperature is over, and it is expected to return to a growth rate of about 10%. Yili’s excellent management ability can be copied in the beverage, and it will continue to push the potential of gradual explosion.

Room temperature milk continues to carry the banner of growth, low-temperature milk + beverage go hand in hand, Yili double-digit revenue growth is still expected.

In the short term, the price war is expected to further disperse, Yili’s performance is expected to be released, and raw milk is still in the supply and supply stage in the next two years. The promotion of low-end products has gradually continued to tighten, and new products such as Dream Cover have not yet succeeded in taking over the original price., It is expected that the promotion efforts will not worsen at least.

In the long run, through the optimization of room temperature milk purity, we think that Yili’s room temperature milk purification (predicted value) is expected to increase from 8% to 15%?
20%, driving the overall net increase.

In the past 2 years, because the competition is still in a state of anxiety, the non-net 杭州桑拿网 interest rate has not improved, but we believe that the impact of the continuously expanding distribution differences on room temperature milk competition has changed from quantitative to qualitative changes, and Yili’s net interest rate will enter a slowly increasing channel.Year or year of layout optimization verification.

Profit forecast: We maintain the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating income for 19-21 will be US $ 904, 1005, and 111.5 billion, respectively +13.

7%, +11.

1%, +10.

9%, the net profit attributable to mothers was RMB 7,1,83,10.6 billion, respectively, plus +10.

4%, +16.

6%, +27.

7%, EPS is 1.

17.1.

36, 1.

74 yuan, corresponding to PE is 27.

6X, 23.

7X, 18.

5 times, maintain “highly recommended” level!

Risk reminders: 1. Risk of weak macro economy: 成都桑拿网 slower economic growth, consumption upgrades are not up to expectations, leading to faster consumer growth; 2. risks of major food safety incidents: consumers are particularly sensitive to food safety issues.For major food safety accidents, it takes a long time for consumers to overcome the freezing point and reshape their confidence in the brand in the short term; 3. Raw material price risk: The cost of raw milk, the main raw material of the product, is relatively high, and the price increase may cause performance to fall short of expectations.