CITIC Securities: Expected allocation value of a certain type of overseas Chinese shares compared to A shares (shares)
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Source: CITIC Securities 丨 Yang Lingxiu Qin Peijing Qiu Xiang Contact: Xu Guanghong We expect the overall profit of Chinese stocks to stabilize and recover in 2020, and the core issue for the allocation of China is that after the differentiation and differentiation of the past year, the industry(Or individual stocks) still have configuration value?
From the perspective of profitability, growth and estimation, we believe that offshore Chinese stock allocation is more cost-effective, especially in the cyclical and technological fields.
Generally speaking, after the growth of the past year, excluding the A / H simultaneous listed companies, the estimated advantage of H-shares for A-shares in the consumer sector has decreased, but the growth of H-shares in automotive, apparel and consumer services has clearly outpaced A-sharesWhile Internet e-commerce companies such as Alibaba, JD.com, Ctrip, Vipshop, etc. are not low forecasts, based on their industry positioning and expectations of faster profit growth in 2020, some companies still have expectations of returning to Hong Kong stocks, and they still have certain expectations.Configuration value.
Finally, it is expected that the financial and real estate sectors have the possibility of overlapping high dividends.
▍In 2020, MSCI China’s profit will stabilize and rebound.
Under a comparable caliber, we expect MSCI China’s overall profit growth to be 13% in 2020. Mandatory 成都桑拿网 consumption, communications services, information technology, and real estate will become an important support for the stabilization of fundamentals in 2020.
Although the profit growth rate of the financial sector is expected to improve, it is expected that there will still be 1 increase in profit in 2020.
After experiencing the estimated differentiation of the past year, a core question for the allocation of funds in China is that certain industries (or individual stocks) have more allocation value?
We look at the three dimensions of profitability, growth and estimated level. Overall, offshore Chinese stocks (Hong Kong stocks / US stocks) are more cost-effective, especially in the cyclical and technological fields.
After excluding A + H listing specimens (for analysis of A + H listing companies,武汉夜生活网 see: “Possibility of H shares under A / H discount premium convergence”, 2020).
6) The PB-ROE matrix of Hong Kong stock companies in the cycle industry is obviously in the shift interval. 80% of the company’s PB levels are lower than the historical average. In the context of capital expansion and recovery, H shares are recovered and replaced, and the technology industry benefits overall.The value of underlying allocations related to the recovery of 5G business and cloud computing capital expenditures is prominent.
From the perspective of PE and future earnings growth, semiconductors, software and hardware outperform comparative advantages, and overall profitability is stronger, while the leading position of Chinese and US stocks in the media industry is solid.
In the consumer sector, the valuation advantage of Hong Kong stocks for A shares is relatively low, but the value of high boom sub-sectors and Internet leader allocation is obvious.
Generally speaking, after the growth of the past year, the estimated advantages of Hong Kong stocks over A-shares in the consumer sector have decreased, but the growth of H-shares in clothing and consumer services has clearly outpaced that of A-shares. Alibaba, Jingdong, CtripAlthough Internet e-commerce and lifestyle service leaders are not estimated to be low, based on their industry categories and expectations of faster profit growth in 2020, some companies still have expectations of returning to Hong Kong stocks, and they still have a certain configuration value.
▍ Focus on the possibility of high dividends in the financial, industrial and real estate sectors.
In addition to profitability and growth, another perspective is a more stable cash return.
Among the MSCI China constituent stocks, 33 Chinese and Hong Kong stocks with high scores replaced 21 and A shares accounted for 12.
The financial industry has a high degree of overlap between A + H. A large number of companies are listed in both places at the same time, and there is a general discount on Hong Kong stocks.
In addition to finance, real estate, real estate, and industry are the first-tier industries with the most distribution, especially in the real estate sector. We are optimistic about the leading real estate companies in the industry that benefit from the loosening of real estate policies and the completion data.
▍Allocation suggestion: Under the consensus expectation that the profit growth rate will stabilize and rebound, considering the company’s profitability, growth, estimation and dividend level, we believe that the relative relative equity investment cost of Chinese stocks in the offshore market.
We look at the development of overseas Chinese investment portfolios from three perspectives: 1) both the cost-effectiveness and high dividend characteristics, and the underlying fundamentals bear the target: Anta Sports, Xuhui Holdings Group, Shimao Real Estate; 2) overall fundamentalsIn terms of the standards that are estimated to be within a reasonable range: Sunny Optical Technology, Tencent Holdings, Meituan Review, Alibaba, Yihai International, China Oriental Education; 3) The fundamentals are supported and the subject with high dividend characteristics:Longhu Group, China Mobile.
▍Risk factors: repeated trade frictions between China and the United States; reversal of foreign exchange inflow trends; macroeconomic growth rate is less than expected.