Haida Group (002311): Sales prospects for poultry and aquatic materials are optimistic-Summary of Hubei Market Research
Company status We recently studied Haida Hubei Branch and communicated with local distributors and farmers to understand the company’s operating dynamics in the Hubei market.
Haida mainly sells aquatic and poultry feeds in Hubei, and pig feed is reduced. Its aquatic and poultry feeds account for a high proportion in the local market.
As a whole, we believe that the company has a competitive advantage in the Hubei market and that the sales prospects of poultry and aquatic products are better.
Comments on the outlook for aquatic product sales in the second half of the year are optimistic: 1) pellets account for a relatively high proportion of the aquatic product sales structure in the Hubei branch. Therefore, the previous earnings of fish prices and rainy weather will affect the pellet sales in the first half of the year.
However, the rise in water temperature in summer is beneficial to aquaculture, and fish prices have increased in July, and farmers’ enthusiasm has resumed. The company said that it is more optimistic about the pellet sales in the second half of the year;The average value of initial aquaculture volume and market demand has risen, and the profitability of aquaculture has also been better. We estimate that the net interest rate of local bass culture will reach 40%.
High-end aquatic products have higher investment requirements and face environmental constraints. In order to improve efficiency, farmers are willing to buy a small amount of extruded material for breeding, and there is a demand for conversion breeding services and supporting replacements (seeds, animal health protection, etc.), which are good for Haida.For the sales of puffed materials, we also expect the company’s high growth trend of puffed materials in the local area will continue; 3) The profit of shrimp and crab materials exceeds that of general aquatic products, and the market is facing expansion.
The current crayfish farming model is gradually shifting from free-range to intensive farming to improve efficiency. We believe that feed requirements will also increase in the future.
On the whole, we believe that Haida’s sales prospects for aquatic products in Hubei are relatively optimistic. Among them, the performance of pellets has improved, the growth of puffed materials has grown, and the market for shrimp and crab materials has expanded.
Poultry feed is still expected to maintain a good growth trend: Hubei market is dominated by egg and poultry farming, and this year’s poultry prices will rise, and the external operating environment is conducive to poultry feed sales.
At the same time, the company predicts that it will promote internal linkage, improve efficiency in various internal departments, enhance competitive advantages, and have too many options for business strategies. We believe that this year the company has a high growth opportunity for livestock sales in the Hubei market.
In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, some local pig feed enterprises switched to poultry feed, and the poultry feed market was highly competitive.
However, some pig farmers have switched to poultry farming, and the market for poultry feed is also growing.
Considering the long-term accumulation of poultry meat sales, and the requirements for formula, production, operation, strategy, etc., the current fierce market competition is more about low-end competition among small and medium-sized enterprises. We believe that Haida has advantages in all aspects and has a strong competitive advantage., Its impact is relatively small.
Estimated recommendations and budget correspond to 27/20 times P / E ratio of 2019/2020.
We maintain our 2019/2020 attributable net profit forecast17.
2.4 billion and 37.
The target price of 00 yuan is unchanged, and the target price corresponds to 33/24 times price-earnings ratio for 2019/2020, + 19% space.
Maintain Outperform rating.
Risks The downturn of the downstream aquaculture industry continues to be sluggish; the prices of raw materials fluctuate 天津夜网 sharply; the effects of extreme weather.