JA Solar Technology (002459) In-depth Research Report: Global Parity Starts Integrated PV Leader Sets Off
Technology leading integrated photovoltaic manufacturer.
The company is the world’s leading integrated module manufacturing and sales enterprise. At present, it has formed a relatively complete integrated manufacturing and production 南宁桑拿 capacity in the photovoltaic industry chain.
At the same time, the company has always maintained a leading position in solar technology research and development.
It is recognized in the industry that the company has great strength in the research and development of high-quality single / insert wafers, high-efficiency solar cells, and high-power solar cell module technology.
Deeply cultivate overseas channels and build favorable sales networks.
The company’s component terminal distribution system is complete, with 13 sales outlets overseas and a sales network covering more than 120 countries and regions around the world.
The main exporting countries and regions cover: South America, Europe, Japan, the United States, India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and the Middle East and Africa, and other mainstream photovoltaic installation regions, and all regions have equal sales.
In 2018, the company’s overseas sales accounted for 65% of the company’s overseas sales. During the same period, overseas demand increased and the company’s export share continued to increase.
According to EnergyTrend’s statistics, the company’s components in the first half of 2019 were 7.
A total of 16% of the city ranks second in the world.
Actively promote the expansion of advantageous production capacity to meet the outbreak of parity demand.
The company has formed 12 domestic and overseas production bases, which are distributed in Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shanghai, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, and overseas bases in Malaysia and Vietnam.
By the end of 2019, the company’s wafer / battery / module production capacity will reach 11GW / 10GW / 13GW, and it is expected to further increase to 14GW / 10GW / 16GW by the end of 2020.
With the further production of 5GW batteries and 10GW modules of the company’s Yiwu base, the company’s production capacity is gradually increased and accelerated to meet the rapid growth of global photovoltaics after parity.
Domestic and foreign demand ushered in resonance in the medium term, and parity started the long-term growth of new energy.
In the short to medium term, domestic and overseas demand is expected to usher in an outbreak of resonance in 2020.
The deferral of some project indicators in China as of 2019 and parity in 2020, the launch of bidding projects has ushered in high growth.
Overseas also expects high growth due to parity and economic drivers.
Global demand is expected to reach 150GW, an increase of more than 30% from the previous quarter.
In the long run, the decline in system costs is expected to push the world into parity in the next 1-2 years, and the penetration rate of new energy is expected to enter an accelerated period. The high-speed growth period of global new energy demand is starting.
The brand and channel value are gradually highlighted, and the leader is expected to usher in a revaluation of value.
The relative assets of component manufacturing are relatively light and easy to expand. They have been in a situation of oversupply for a long time and have poor profitability.
However, due to the relative expansion of the upstream and upstream expansion cycles, there is a phased supply-demand mismatch in investment inputs, resulting in a periodical excess profit.
With the release of planned capacity, the single crystal penetration rate has gradually peaked, and we expect that the profitability of each manufacturing alternative will be more balanced.
Leading companies that master the terminal channel will gradually enjoy the brand premium, and the value is expected to usher in a revaluation.
The first coverage is given a “strong push” rating with a target price of 21.
As a technology-leading photovoltaic manufacturing and sales leader, the company has established a complete manufacturing and sales channel worldwide.
As the global photovoltaic power generation gradually enters the stage of parity on-grid, the price sensitivity of the industrial chain is gradually reduced, the value of the brand is expected to improve, and the products of leading companies are expected to obtain a “premium” in the process.
We are optimistic about the company’s mid- and long-term competitiveness. The company is expected to usher in a new round of growth after photovoltaic enters its growth stage.
We expect the company to achieve net profit attributable to mothers in 2019-2021.
07 billion 淡水桑拿网 / 14.
6.8 billion / 18.
8.6 billion, corresponding to 0 EPS.
82 yuan / 1.
09 yuan / 1.
41 yuan, with reference to the industry assessment level and the company’s leading addition, give the company a 20 times valuation in 2020, corresponding to a target price of 21.
8 yuan / share.The first coverage was given a “strong push” rating.
Risk warning: domestic demand is lower than expected, export volume is lower than expected, and capacity expansion is lower than expected.